June 2008 Update For Mobile Industry: 88 Million SIMs, Rate Of Growth Slows
The 2008 mid-year numbers for mobile subscribers are available here. The data shows a few trends about the growth of mobile subscribers (see chart below):
The rate of growth has slowed. 1.3 million sims were added in June, compared with the average of around 2 milliom per month from Jan - May of ‘08.
Warid fought back by adding the largest number of subscribers in June. Telenor and Zong seem to be losing some steam after a few months of high subscriber intake. Mobilink continues at sluggish pace. Ufone and Telenor numbers remain extremely close to each other.
One thought is that the dip is seasonal and growth will resume after some time (the June numbers in 2007 also took a hit). The dip in FDI may also be a factor. More likely it could be that the rising food and oil prices are taking their toll.
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this drowning growth rate was anticipated right after calling prices were increased due to additional taxes. Furthermore, we are heading towards a saturation point where sales wont remain the measuring tool for success. Still stats for one month are not enough to conclude such things.
Lets see how things go around in July…
One more thing, not only the sales, but the voice traffic has also gone down by 9 percent…read somewhere yesterday
I believe the biggest instigator for the decline in sales is the regulation put forth by PTA. It’s a strangle-hold on all operators since their key selling points (the retail outlets) can no longer sell SIM cards. The only points of sale these days are the franchise, since that is the only place where operators can ensure proper registration of subscribers.
The operators are also facing the stick to first block the unregistered SIM cards, and then to proceed with further sales. My guess is that once these restrictions are lifted, the sales will take a hike again.
I was expecting same results. because I know that Mobilink was playing with figures since long by adding cards in new unsold stock because as card is entered in SIM, it gets registered on IN (Intelligence Network) and PTA takes that data for calculating monthly figures. Now, as PTA has changed practice and trying to ensure ture user of number, Mobilink Marketing and sales team has to come in Market to sell their stock. There is competition so this company is unable to penetrate.
If today PTA will order that stop this life time validity or 1 year validy on Rs100 card, you will see 40% decrease in active customers. PTA is also trying to show their efficiency by allowing them to keep SIM active, even it is lost or not in use at all. Active SIM means that it will remain on IN and companies can exaggerate their figures.
Just see marketings like ” We are covering 5000 cities of Pakistan” Are there 5000 cities of Pakistan actually?
and ” We are every where” but I am hardly getting same company’s signal in the middle of my city. Open area and big roads.
They should understand meaning of “Corporate Social Responsibility Concept” before making such adds.
Kitnay visionaries hain competiton main? Ustad 2. Kon Kon Say? Ustad aik Zouhair Khaliq aur Dosra Tori Johnsen.
Tori to tur gaya ab tera ka kya hoga kaalia?
Nowadays, we read a lot of things being done by PTA to control and curb the undocumented sale of mobile connections all over the country. Though PTA has
reacted to this alarming situation very late, but nevertheless, now as it has taken this repsonsibility seriously, so it can be assumed that things will start
improving shortly.
If Government of Pakistan and PTA are really serious in total stoppage of undocumented sale of mobile connections, then they must take certain major step towards amendment in Sales Policies of mobile operators.
I am of the opinion that we must shift from pre-active mobile sims to in-active mobile sims. In case of inactive mobile sims, these may be bought from any
registered retailer. After purchasing the desired mobile sim, the user be required to visit any franchise or business center of that operator, with
his original CNIC, and get his data input into their system. After required verifications from NADRA’s database, the sim be activated by the operator. I
think that this data entry, and verification process will not take more than 48 hours. So the user will be able to use his connection, after about 48 hours of
his visiting any of the data entry points of that particular mobile operator. A mobile sim is a means of communication and not a toy, therefore if the user has
to wait for 48 hours to start its usage, I do not feel anything wrong with it. Like nowadays it takes about 4 to 6 days to complete formalities of SBP in case of
opening a bank account. So in this case its only take 1-2 days.
By adopting the non-activated sims policy, on one side PTA will ensure correct data of the user, and on the other, there will be no misuse of the general public’s CNIC. The prospective users will have peace of mind that no fake connection can be initiated on his record and without knowledge. This policy of in-active sims being available at retail shops will also ensure continuity of business of these shops, and the retailers will not loose their livelihood.
Please note that as long as pre-active sims are available on retail shops, the documentation can never be ensured. The Business Centers of mobile companies and their franchises have the necessary trained HR and have made substantial investment so they will ensure the legal aspects, to prevent any seal or termination.
I think that in this way, the earnings of mobile operators will not drop, the retail shop keepers will keep on earning their livelihood, and documentation of
mobile connections will also get complete.
Abdul Salam Khan
Advocate
[...] For the month of June, about 1.3 million new mobile subscribers were added, led by Warid (Source: Telecompk.net). [...]
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