Forecast Of Lower ARPU, Higher Penetration For Pakistan Mobile Industry
A recently published report (4Q 2008 Pakistan Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2010) by Research and Markets forecasts that Pakistan’s average revenue per user will continue falling. By 2010 the wireless penetration level is likely to be the highest in South Asia. The report predicts that in 2010 Mobilink will still be the leader with over 31% market share. Zong will continue its fast growth.
All forecasts should be taken with a pinch of salt though the trends indicated here are consistent with other industry analyst views.
We think that Pakistan will continue to see reductions in ARPUs over the forecast period of 2008 – 2010. In 2010, we forecast that Pakistan will have the average ARPU level of US 2.66 (previously US 2.83) which is the lowest ARPU in our coverage list of countries.
Pakistan will see its wireless penetration level increase from a projected 58.8% in 2008 to a forecasted 71.5% in 2010 (unchanged). This would make Pakistan the most highly penetrated market in South Asia.
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