Broadband Overview And Trends In Pakistan – 2008
According to PTA numbers, Pakistan had just over 170,000 broadband internet subscribers at the end of July 2008, up from 65,000 in March 2007. This number excludes mobile internet users on EDGE or GPRS. Digital subscriber line (DSL) and hybrid fibre coax (HFC) remain the most popular broadband technologies, as shown below. It is estimated that there were 2800 FTTH (fiber to the home) and 20,000 WiMAX users at the end of July 2008.
A clear digital divide has existed within Pakistan as coverage and provisioning has been mainly limited to large urban areas. Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad are the best served cities. Since 2007 PTCL adopted aggressive strategy for DSL growth and by 2008 PTCL expanded its broadband DSL services to about 130 cities. However, Pakistan’s fixed-line infrastructure is still quite limited. A Ministry of Technology (MOITT) report on broadband estimates that all existing copper can support hardly 500,000 broadband users over a period of 3-5 years.
Universal Services Fund (USF), which subsidizes broadband in under-served areas, has been working diligently on a number of initiatives. The hope is that USF subsidy for broadband will help to close the digital divide. Read more about USF work here.
Then there is Mobilink’s Orascom’s LinkDotNet broadband service, at competitive rates (for instance, Rs.1200 for 512 kbps, unlimited download). Although limited in coverage, these are positive developments. I am pleased that the prices have dropped to affordable levels. There are student discounts available as well.
Another significant trend is that wireless broadband services have expanded significantly in the last 12 months.
WiMAX is expected to account for a growing number of broadband connections in the future. In the first 4 months of the launch, Wateen signed up nearly 10,000 customers. However due to initial issues with billing etc, there was considerable churn reported. Mobilink started the second commercial launch of WiMAX in Karachi by the name MobilinkInfinity. It has been estimated that about a 1000 customers have been signing up for this service per month.
Current estimates are that there are around 50,000 broadband wireless users in Pakistan. Wordcall Evdo service, Zong’s EDGE through USB modem and similar services by other mobile network operators provide further choices, though these are a bit pricey for average Pakistani consumer. Wireless mobile broadband is poised to be the next hot area of growth. If and when 3G arrives, it will be another boost to the wireless broadband sector.
Updated 11/28/08: Tee Emm commented below about the informal local area networks relying on cheap optical fiber cables passed over utility poles with or without permissions (typically on the basis of ’street power’). It is estimated that these so-called ‘desi networks’ are serving around 100,000 households all over Pakistan. This is an important part of Pakistan’s broadband sector which has been overlooked.
Projections for growth
The MOITT report includes an optimistic forecast based on the USF subsidy for fixed and wireless broadband. According to this forecast, in 2008-2009 the fixed broadband users will grow to 250,000 and wireless broadband will be 150,000. This excludes commercial LANs and WANs. I believe that the actual numbers will be within 20% of these estimates. We will know when PTA releases the information in 2009.
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