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Published on March 2nd, 2010 | by Babar Bhatti and Arsalan Mir


Pakistan Mobile Operator Forecast 2009-2014

Research and Market, the world’s largest market research resource have recently published forecast reports of next five years for mobile operators of Pakistan and other countries. The key points of the report as mentioned in its summary give a very interesting picture of the state of telecom industry in Pakistan.

  • Subscriber growth is slowing down in Pakistan’s wireless market ; +7.0% industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009
    • The wireless penetration rate is still low at approximately 60% in 2009, and it is expected that the country’s wireless market will continue to show strong growth. The forecasts says that total mobile subscribers in Pakistan will increase from 96 million in 2009 to 134.8 million in 2014. So, we might touch 100 million by 2010 end.
    • Mobilink will continue to be the largest player in Pakistan’s mobile operator space over the next five years. The expected mobile subscribers of Mobilink will be 36 million  in 2014.
    • Also, given the latest quarter numbers, the forecast predicts that Ufone will have 25.8 million, Telenor will have 29 million, and Warid will have 25.3 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014. In this case Mobilink will still be playing on its first mover advantage and the lead the market with Telenor at second.
    • Market share loss at Mobilink and market share gain at China Mobile Pakistan from 2010 – 2014 is expected. In terms of shares of total subscribers, we expect that Mobilink’s market share will decline over the next five years, from 30% in 2009 to 26.7% in 2014. On the other hand, we expect China Mobile Pakistan’s (Zong) market share to increase from 8% in 2009 to 13.7% in 2014. The Zong’s growth predicted is quite low.
    • The market shares expected at Ufone, Telenor, and Warid will be approximately 19.2%, 21.6% and 18.8% respectively in 2014.
  • ARPUs are decreasing in Pakistan’s mobile operator space; -8.0% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 3Q.2009
    • ARPU levels will remain low in Pakistan’s mobile operator space. We expect that the industry average ARPU will remain in the range of US$ 2 – US$ 3 over the next five years. This could be the worst consequence of indulging into price war.
    • In 2014, Mobilink’s monthly ARPU will be at highest among operators at US$ 2.64. The operator with the lowest monthly ARPU will be Warid Telecom with US$ 1.67 in 2014. There is a high chance of Mobilink’s ARPU being dependent on its post-paid subscriber base, which may continue to be the largest.
  • Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing at Mobilink and Telenor; +12.5% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 3Q.2009
  • Strong EBITDA growth at Telenor in the latest quarter; Industry average EBITDA growth was +0.4% in 3Q.2009
    • Given the excellent performance by Norway’s Telenor in Pakistan’s wireless market in the recent past, the forecasts is that its EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will be increasing from about 23% in 2009 to 35% in 2014.
    • On the other hand, Mobilink shall maintain its EBITDA margin of approximately 35% over the forecast period, 2010 – 2014.

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7 Responses to Pakistan Mobile Operator Forecast 2009-2014

  1. Kumar says:

    How can I read full report. Please provide me link.

  2. Arsalan Mir says:

    Jahanzeb, the full report is available at their website at a cost ;).

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  4. Jahanzeb says:

    Interesting indeed. Can we have access to the full report?


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