Published on December 9th, 2010 | by Arsalan Mir10
Cellular Trend Watch: June – October 2010
It has been a while we have analyzed on the cellular subscriber statistics. This post shall take a look at the trend onwards from June (Q2 end) to latest release of October numbers.
In June 2010, the total subscriber base stood at around 800k less the 100 million mark with Mobilink leading the market followed by Telenor. Ufone and Warid took the third and fourth place respectively with only a little difference between their market share. Zong was last with a market share of around 6.7 million. This was the market share position at Q2 end.
Towards the end of July 2010, the Pakistan Mobile Industry crossed the landmark of 100 million subscribers.
According to the PTA report, during the FY 09-10 the cellular mobile subscribers showed a growth of 5.1%. Among the total, prepaid subscriptions stand at 97% and the remaining 3% is the post-paid market share. Though Mobilink is a market leader, it is facing a tough competition maintaining its growth, in FY 09-10 Telenor’s growth rate was 14% while Mobilink registered a growth of 10.7%. While in the same fiscal year, PTA implemented the standard active subscriber definition resulting which the operators had to adopt a cleaning process.
By the end of September 2010 (Q3), the total number of subscribers reached 100,134,748. While still leading, a significant drop (~758k) is observed in Mobilink’s subscribers base. This can easily be related to clean up process of non-active subscribers. Mobilink tried well to reduce this and get subscribers active by coming up with marketing offers like Special Day in mid-September. Read our prediction of the same here.
The market share ranking among all operators remains same. In Q3, Ufone and Zong registered a neck-to-neck substantial increase of around 687k and 748k respectively. Warid could only gain ~233k while Telenor added ~38k, the lowest in gains.
The October 2010 update by PTA gives the total subscriber numbers to be 100.7 million. The individual operators shares can be seen in the chart below.
In October, Zong kept its increasing trend with adding ~332k subscribers. Telenor showed a substantial increase in its base this month with gaining around 285k subscribers. Ufone fell down by ~50k, possibly because of the record clean-up. While Mobilink and Warid showed only marginal growth.
Closing this post if we go by these and considering the strong rumors about Mobilink’s merger with Warid come true, their joint subscriber base will reach to 48.6 million around half of the total market share. The post merger pie-chart could look like this.