State of Telecom Industry in Pakistan

Cross Post from LIRNE Asia. Written by Rohan Samarajiva on October 24, 2009.

According to the ITU ICTeye, which is now carrying 2008 data, Pakistan’s surge to overtake Sri Lanka has petered out, leaving the Maldives (143 active SIMs/100 people) as the undisputed leader in mobile connectivity (apparently all adult Maldivians carry two active SIMs; there are only two operators in the Maldives), and Sri Lanka second with 52 SIMs per 100 people.

On the fixed side, assisted by CDMA phones that are counted as fixed, Sri Lanka is the leader (17 connection per 100 people), followed by Maldives (15 per 100).

Like in cricket, the middle of the rankings are the most interesting. Both Pakistan (50/100) and Bhutan (37/100) are ahead of India (29/100) in mobile. This shows that India cannot afford to let up the pace of 10 million connections a month for some time. If it does, it might be overtaken by Afghanistan (29/100) and even Bangladesh (28/100).

Of course, the fact that Afghanistan is ahead of Bangladesh in mobile penetration should cause all sorts of palpitations in government offices in Dhaka. Bangladesh was one of the earliest in South Asia to adopt mobile and is the most densely populated country in the world. How they were overtaken by Afghanistan, a war-torn country with difficult terrain, should cause serious re-examination of policies such as the BDT 800 SIM tax. The fact that Afghanistan’s CAGR for 2003-08 is 109%, higher than Bangladesh’s 2003-08 CAGR of 101%, suggests that the gap between the two countries is more likely to increase than decrease.

In the fixed rankings, we find Afghanistan occupying the cellar (0.37/100 people) behind Bangladesh (0.84/100). Pakistan (2.5/100) is behind Nepal (2.8/100). This is very surprising given the apparent superiority of the Pakistan policy and regulatory framework. Both use CDMA on the fixed access side, so that cannot be the explanation. Comments from Pakistani colleagues would be most welcome.

India is the only country showing negative growth in fixed over the 2003-08 period (-2%), but this simply because India is more honest in its reporting, counting CDMA on the mobile side instead of on the fixed side. For example Sri Lanka is experiencing negative growth in wireline, that is masked by CDMA growth.

From 2003 to 2008, the number of active SIMs has increased by over 12 times, while the number of fixed connections has decreased marginally, the negative growth in India wiping out all the gains in the rest of South Asia. South Asia is clearly the territory of the mobile.

Via InformationWeek

Verizon Wireless is planning to light up its Long-Term Evolution (LTE) nationwide network next year in one fell swoop rather than deploying it in a traditional market-by-market rollout, according to Tony Melone, the firm’s senior vice president and chief technology officer.

In the interview, in the wake of his talk on Verizon Wireless’ LTE project this week at the 2009 PCIA Wireless Infrastructure Show, Melone described the move to LTE from Verizon’s existing CDMA EV-DO network as an “overlay” and not a “switchover.” He added that the LTE network is able to use much of the existing infrastructure of the CDMA network including towers and backhaul gear.
Melone also discussed what consumers can expect from the new LTE network. “You will need new devices to take [full] advantage of LTE,” he said. “But there won’t be a need to force migrate” The carrier’s CTO explained that existing Verizon Wireless users will be able to continue to use their current devices and handsets after LTE is commercially launched.

LTE will enable traditional-type handsets and PDAs, but also some non-traditional devices like the IREX Technologies e-book reader, GM’s OnStar auto security solution, and even court-ordered electronic bracelets. Melone noted that Verizon has certified more than 55 devices to operate on its 3G network and they will be available also for use with the LTE network. Most of them are machine-to-machine (M2M) units.

The company, which is jointly owned by Verizon Communications (55%) and Vodafone Group (45%), has launched trial sites in suburban Boston and suburban Seattle. The Verizon LTE Innovation Center in suburban Boston is nearly completed, Melone added.

In his PCIA talk this week, Melone sought to scotch rumors that his firm’s LTE rollout is falling behind schedule. In the interview, he maintained that deployment is on schedule. The firm, however, hasn’t yet given specific dates on its nationwide deployment, but it has pledged it will happen in 2010 in 25 to 30 markets. The company will seek to have the service available for some 100 million POPs (points of presence) in 2010 and continue to deploy the network over the next two and three years.

Melone said Verizon’s Developer Community and its V CAST Apps will launch by the end of the year, enabling developers to take advantage of the launch to bring their own products and services to market.

“We can build all the bells and whistles and make lots of bold claims,” said Melone, “but none of it will matter if the network — and all of the underlying infrastructure that supports the network — isn’t fundamentally reliable. There will be no substitute for good old-fashioned engineering. Reliability built in at the start based on rigid engineering standards and a disciplined approach year-after-year will continue to be our mantra.”

Pakistan and China signed memorandum of understanding to cooperate on a number of technology and industry initiatives. One of the MoU is on Global Open Trunking Architecture (Gota) for Emergency Communication and Disaster Control management in Pakistan between Ministry of IT and Telecom (National Telecommunication Corporation) and ZTE Corporation People’s Republic of China.

Wikipedia defines Global Open Trunking Architecture as:

In telephony, GoTa or “Global Open Trunking Architecture” is a CDMA-based digital trunking system. The GoTA system was developed by ZTE, a Chinese manufacturer. The GoTA system can be used for both private and public trunking network applications.

GoTa is capable of providing a variety of trunking services:

* One-to-one private calls and one-to-many group calls
* The ability to set the user’s priority
* The ability to perform forced insertion/forced release based on the user’s priority
* The ability to provide special services such as system paging, group paging, sub-group paging, and dedicated Push-To-Talk services as required
* The ability to classify the groups into permanent and temporary groups, in which the group members can be managed by the user.

As reported by WSJ. Just like Pakistan, Chinese consumers are unofficially enjoying iPhone already. Imported iPhones currently sell on the gray market in China for as little $680, and those have Wi-Fi (the official phones will not have Wi-Fi because of a Chinese govt regulation). Unicom’s challenge will be to price the iPhone at a level that is competitive but still doesn’t hurt its average revenue-per-user.

The highly anticipated release of the iPhone in China — which has 687 million wireless subscribers, more than twice the population of the U.S. — is expected to be a boost for both Apple and Unicom, one of three Chinese state-owned telecommunications carriers. Still, the two companies face challenges to realizing the iPhone’s potential in China, including competition from similar devices, and the companies left several key questions about pricing and other details unanswered Friday.

The release of the iPhone in China could turbocharge overseas growth for what is already Apple’s fastest-growing product. China is the world’s largest mobile market by subscribers, with some 687 million subscribers. That compares with more than 270 million subscribers in the U.S.

In China, however, touch screens are hot, and there are already a number of popular models that have no keypads. The Apple name has value as a status symbol, and Internet usage through cellphones is increasing.

Competing products are already in the works in China, adding urgency to the iPhone’s launch. China Mobile Ltd., the country’s largest carrier by subscribers, plans to start selling smart phones with similar functions to the iPhone this year based on Google Inc.’s Android operating system. On Monday, Taiwanese phone maker HTC Corp. announced it plans to launch seven third-generation phones, including at least one Android phone, with China Mobile by next year.

Launching the iPhone in China would likely boost Apple’s small presence in the country. Apple currently has less than 1% market share in personal-computer shipments in China. In the second quarter, Apple sold only about 36,000 units out of 11.7 million PCs shipped in China, according to IDC.

One indication of the iPhone’s strong potential in China is the thriving underground iPhone market that already exists there. Though the device isn’t officially available, BDA estimates there are already 1.5 million iPhones in use in China, and the handset is on sale everywhere from online vendors to resellers of Apple products in sprawling electronics malls.

People can use the iPhone and buy applications on Apple’s iTunes store by unlocking the device with software that enables it to work with any network operator, even if they aren’t approved by Apple.

Here’s a review of the WorldCall EVDO Broadband Service for 3 months in Karachi, by Mohtashim of IT Tazee. His review is based on the 256kbps speed option.

A few snippets from his review:

Setup: Simple and fast. Since its USB, it self installs and starts to work.
Price : 3000 for the device, and 1200 and up for the service. Yes, home DSL is cheaper and faster, I agree but you do pay dearly for the mobility and to bypass KESC and PTCL all at once!
Speed: We got the speed promised consistently as long as we were in the Karachi metropolitan area.

Imran Zaheer added this comment from his own experience:

QoS varies greatly from area to area and time of day. The first 2 months (where I suppose user base was very low), I consistently used to get 80-140KB/sec (yes that’s a little above the rated speed limit). I suggest people considering this go with the 256 or 512 packages, and if you do a lot of inter city traveling, consider the PTCL EVDO option.

For Rs.2000 per month you can have blazing fast Internet on the go from PTCL EVO service. There’s a one time cost of Rs 6000 (USB) or Rs 4000 (PCMCIA card) . If you have a land line you pay the broadband charges with the land line bill, otherwise pay at PTCL One Stop Shops or Customer Service Centers. Limited availability for the broadband speeds – Lahore, Islamabad and Karachi – for now. But the lower speed CDMA version is available in other areas. Here’s what PTCL says:

You can use this service in Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Rawalpindi & Mirpur for broadband while traveling. Your Evdo automatically switches to 1 X in non Evdo Coverage areas. Which means you can also use internet everywhere in Pakistan where there is Vfone 1900MHz network. Please note that in non Evdo coverage areas your internet will be connected on lower speed (153Kbps). PTCL provides a very large coverage area where you can stay connected.

For more information including caveats and support for your operating system, look at the main EVO service page and the FAQ page. As usual the service has been getting reviews ranging from great to average. But overall I think PTCL has a winner with EVO, if they can sustain the performance and service.

Here’s a teaser from the review by TechLahore.

I got a sleek looking, black EV-DO wireless USB dongle with an extensible antenna, that happens to go perfectly with my T60. The dongle has a built USB storage, so all I had to do was plug it in and the setup program started… from the dongle itself! Pretty cool. It took me about 5 minutes to run through the install, and boom! I was in business. My first stop was google.com, which loaded instantly. I could already see the difference in performance but I decided to measure it a little more objectively. Speedtest.net is always handy for that.

There are a number of good industry events for ICT. On the educational side, I also see good activity and wanted to share one event details which looks very promising. A Short Course on CDMA-2000 and EVDO based 3-G Cellular System is being organized at MCS on 23 May 2009. Military College of Signals (MCS) is a constituent institution of NUST and offers education in the field of Telecommunication, Software Engineering and Information Security for last many years. Registration and detailed info is here.

The training will be conducted by Dr. Syed Ismail Shah, PhD in Electrical Engineering from University of Pittsburgh, US. Dr. Shah has successfully completed the Qualcomm courses qualification in several areas of CDMA2000. He has given tutorials and training sessions on different aspects of CDMA at workshops and conferences held in various parts of the world. He is the founding member of the Pakistan CDMA forum.

This training will provide a comprehensive converge of CDMA2000 1x RTT and 1x EV-DO based 3-G Cellular Systems. These standards have been adopted for the 3G cellular wireless communication.  This training will provide students and faculty an in depth understanding of the core concepts of these systems; in addition this platform will prove a opportunity to Telecomm professionals to enhance their knowledge and skills on these 3-G Cellular Systems.

Huawei Technologies announced that its global contract sales of wireless access equipment, core network and auxiliary infrastructure reached US$10 billion in 2008, a growth of 50% from 2007. Huawei counts 35 of the world’s top 50 operators as customers (a few of them are in Pakistan of course), and is registering growth across the board with all wireless technologies. Huawei is progressing on the LTE front as well. Recently, it won the world’s first commercial LTE contract with TeliaSonera along with Ericsson. Head of Huawei’s Wireless Network Branding, Lu Xingang revealed that the company has already deployed LTE trials in Europe, North America and Japan and has completed field tests, including throughput, latency, MIMO, high speed multi-user access and cell hand off, as well as multi-service QoS. At the same time, it is developing both FDD and TDD versions of LTE.

Its success is led by GSM, which registered a 100% growth year on year for 2008. Huawei shipped 1.5 million transceivers inside its GSM base stations during the year, representing around 30% of the total GSM market and number 2 in the world, Lu said. Huawei also registered impressive growth in UMTS and CDMA sales last year. “UMTS also grows very fast. Huawei won 42 new UMTS/HSPA commercial contracts in 2008.

By the end of 2008 we have accumulated a total of 128 UMTS/HSPA commercial contracts, which means Huawei has constructed half of global UMTS/HSPA networks,” Lu said.” Although the CDMA market size is becoming smaller, Huawei CDMA still maintains a 35% growth with 220,000 transceivers new shipments in 2008. Huawei performed particularly well in China, winning 30%+ market share in China Telecom CDMA phase-1 project.”

“The first commercial LTE product will support FDD at 2.6GHz & 700MHz and TDD at 2.6GHz,” Lu said, adding the both FDD and TDD platforms will be launched commercially within 2009. “Huawei is closely working with all of three China operators in the roll-out plan. It is estimated that the first China LTE trial will commence in late 2009. Year 2009/2010 is the most important period for China operators to do LTE trials.”

We have been discussing the competitive landscape of always on wireless broadband in Pakistan. PTCL has entered this lucrative area with a soft launch of personal broadband wireless service using cdma EVDO technology. Service currently available in Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Mirpur.

For customers, its the performance which matters and PTCL is claiming up to 500 to 1,000 Kbps but in reality average speeds are likely to vary from 300Kbps to 700Kbps for downlink and 200 Kbps to 400Kbps for uplink. Here’s a summary of the rates.

Package 1 (no CPE cost) – Unlimited access:
Monthly service charge: Rs.2500 (first year) and Rs. 2000 from second year onwards.
No initial charges required and the charges will be billed with PTCL landline bill.

Package 2 – Unlimited access:
Initial CPE charge : Rs.4000
Monthly service charges : Rs.2000 for unlimited access
Monthly service charges will be billed with PTCL landline bill.

PTCL provides EvDO PCMCIA cards. You need a laptop with PCMCIA slot. EVDO Rev.A offers up to 3.1 Mbps downlink and up to 1.8Mbps uplink. Average speeds vary from 300Kbps to 700Kbps for downlink and 200 Kbps to 400Kbps for uplink. However it varies depending on the physical situation of the user and the network at a particular time.

Beside the initial coverage in the cities described above, consumers can also use internet in other big cities as well where there is 1900MHz network but on dialup speed (153Kbps). PTCL provides a very large coverage area where you can stay connected.

The broadband speed depends on how far you are from CDMA BTS. Either with EVDO network or CDMA 1x, you will get very good speeds if the tower is within 2 – 3 KMs radius

Special Post By Tariq Mustafa

The second commercial Wimax network went live in Pakistan (Karachi) recently. For the South Asain nation of 160 million (half of which are young adults), these cutting edge WiMAX networks are a cause for celebration. Mobilink (one of the most successful ventures of the international telecoms giant Orascom Telecom) which has the highest subscriber base of over 30 million subscribers (out of the total 80 million users nationwide) has launched its Wimax brand called Mobilink Infinity.

The network is essentially 802.16e based mobile Wimax and has been launched in Karachi, the commercial capital of Pakistan and also world’s second most populous city in the world with 16 million citizens. The CPE costs Rs 6,000 ($77) one-time and monthly subscriptions are available in 256kbps, 512 kbps and 1 mb categories. The integrated VoIP based analog voice port allows local loop telephony to the user with preferential rates for the (dominating) Moblilink network.

Earlier Pakistan got the worlds largest nationwide Wimax Network from Wateen Telecom , a new telecoms business venture of the Abu Dhabi Group that also owns the popular cellular brand Warid in Pakistan (and now in some other countries – Congo and Georgia). Wateen’s Wimax (built on Motorola Wimax gear) has received mixed response and some believe that the less than perfect launch of the much hyped product has more to do with the company’s operations rather than the technology limitations. The problems have accumulated enough to give Wimax a bad name. New operators are expected to avoid the technology name (wimax) in their upcoming products in the local market due to this reason.

A few weeks ago, Worldcall (an overseas investment of Omantel of Oman in Pakistan) launched its CDMA EvDO services on top of its popular CDMA based Wireless Local Loop voice services. Marketed under the catchy marketing campaign using Footloose, the service uses Anydata’s USB modem as its EvDO CPE.

Some estimates puts Pakistan’s teledensity as the highest in the region.

Related Posts: Here, here and here.

A version of this post also appeared at DailyWireless.org

WorldCall has started EVDO service from Karachi. The solution uses a USB modem (or a wireless router – if thats what you prefer) and enables wireless broadband services for laptops. This is being offered at very competitive rates by WordCall. Thanks to Faraz at WorldCall for sharing the information at Telecom Grid. Quoting the thread:

There’s no cap on downloads. Below is the tariff – for shared connections:

256 Kbps 1200/-
512 Kbps 1800/-
1 Mbps 2500/-

Device is ADU-510A,  cost Rs. 4500.

Service is currently available in Karachi with plans of expanding it to Lahore soon.

Dual-band, dual-SIM on the same phone? This Coolpad looks like a really cool phone for travelers and for people who love to swap out SIMs often. Lets see if it delivers as promised. As reported at CNET:

For the frequent travelers, remaining contactable via mobile is serious business. Should you use roaming to remain in contact but pay exorbitant fees just to call a local number? Or switch your SIM card to a local account and risk missing important calls? Most compromise by having two phones, which frankly, is no solution at all.

Coolpad phones claim to be the first in the market with dual-SIM devices that not only work with more than one network, but can even switch between GSM and CDMA accounts without batting an eye. Currently retailing in Indonesia, China and Africa, handsets range from US$100 to US$350, with premium models going for as high as US$1,000. Granted the only drawback we’ve seen so far is the lack of 3.5G connectivity, but Coolpad phones will save you a bundle in roaming fees.