State of Telecom Industry in Pakistan

Does it make business sense to introduce 3G in Pakistan at this time? PTA has been deliberating on this question for a while. Recently PTA asked major technology stakeholders (equipment makers, mobile companies) to share their view points on 3G licensing and roll-out. The presentations have been posted at the PTA website. Telenor CEO has talked to press about his views on 3G, covered here. Take a look at few points from a presentation by another one of the major mobile company. The argument presented is that conditions are not suitable for 3G in Pakistan and the data revenue potential does not justify investments needed for 3G. They recommend to either defer spectrum allotment or give partial spectrum at nominal cost. Can you guess which mobile operator is this?

3G Situation in Pakistan

• Pakistan is a low priced voice dominated market. Industry is building voice capacity rather than enhanced capability
• Pakistan Mobile Data Subscriptions Disappointing
• Nominal GPRS subscriptions in the industry
• ARPU uplift from these subscriptions is negligible
• Multi-mode (GSM/UMTS) handsets are still costly
• GSM market exploded due to economies of scale in the hand sets
• GSM hand set is available as low as $25
• Small percentage of 3G capable hand sets in the market
• 3G non-voice mobile revenues are expected to be negligible
• Localized content stimulates usage — Low literacy in Pakistan
• No content available in local/regional languages

Spectrum Cost

• Spectrum forms part of investment for an operator to roll out a 3G network
• Five operators can be expected to invest over a billion dollars on initial launch
• More cell sites would required to support higher data rates
• Local content development is an uphill task

Option 1
Defer the allotment of spectrum for another 1-2 years (as per our recommendation May 2007)

Option 2
Award 5Mhz of 3G spectrum to all MNOs at nominal cost (similar to WiMax spectrum fee )

Why?

1. Incentive to build and grow 3G services
2. Justify high capex on roll outs
3. Technology proliferation
4. Affordable 3G services for masses
5. Allocation of additional 3G spectrum at a subsequent date
6. Operators keen to expand on 3G portfolio can bid
7. Market foundation is laid
8. Business case for further investments
9. Strengthen operator capability to offer better QoS and advanced services

CTIA Wireless 2008 is one of the largest wireless events in the US. Among its various programs is the Emerging Technology Awards which claims to highlight the most innovative products and applications representing all facets of the mobile lifestyle in wireless”. It is a good place to see some promising gadgets, applications and products.

Take a look at this report. Do you think these were truly worthy of awards?

Mobile CE - Phone/Smartphone
1st place - Instinct by Samsung, exclusively from Sprint
2nd place - Nokia N96
3rd place - Samsung ACE (SPH-i325)

Consumer Applications - Messaging (SMS/MMS)/Mobile Marketing
1st place - Cellfire 3.0
2nd place - Reply with Jott for BlackBerry
3rd place - SnapNow Mobile Visual Search

Consumer Applications - Mobile Entertainment/Social Networking
1st place - Ontela’s PicDeck™
2nd place - WidSets
3rd place - Yahoo! Go 3.0

Mobile Widgets - Consumer
1st place - Zumobi
2nd place - Fusion Voicemail Plus by PhoneFusion
3rd place - JACKED Mobile SportsTop

It is inevitable that more and more kids (say ages 8-16) will own a mobile phone. The very qualities which make a mobile phone very useful (personal, connected and media capable) can also make it a cause for concern for parents. How can parents know if their kids are using the phones appropriately? Previously we have talked about some issues but there’s a lot more to discuss about the generation gap, content which ends up on the phone (whether it is live content or from removable media) and the vulnerabilities to which kids can be exposed to.

Results of a recent AT&T survey revealed that 84 percent of consumers believe parental controls and safety tools are extremely or very important in keeping children safe while they use today’s entertainment and communications technologies. Nearly one-third (31 percent) of those adults do not feel that they have adequate knowledge of how to use those tools to protect children from today’s threats.

There was a recent article in New York Times about the generation gap caused by mobile phones in US. It quotes a social psychologist Sherry Turkle (a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who has studied the social impact of mobile communications) saying that these trends are likely to continue as cellphones morph into mini hand-held computers, social networking devices and pint-size movie screens. The point made by the story is that parents need to learn about how kids are using new technology. Obviously the situation varies from culture to culture but the trend is the same.

There have been attempts by a few companies to design services which allow parents control over how their kids use mobile phones and services. But there’s only so much that a parent can control and the personal nature of mobile phone makes it very difficult to monitor its usage. As many would argue, it is a social matter which should not be tried to solve using technology. However there is still a case to be made for putting controls over how the phone is used if you are the one paying the bill.

The NYT article adds: Marketers and cellphone makers are only too happy to fill the newest generation gap. Last fall, Firefly Mobile introduced the glowPhone for the preschool set; it has a small keypad with two speed-dial buttons depicting an image of a mother and a father.

Towards this AT&T has Smart Limits which allows parents to set account thresholds and to filter out content. See a flash demo here and keep in mind that it is not a complete solution by any means. Hit the link below to see details about this from AT&T website:

Read more »

One of the premiere events of mobile and wireless industry, GSM annual meeting is a place to watch for trends. In the event hosted at Barcelona last month, Yahoo got the award for mobile portal, Grameenphone for social cause (note the familiar logo) and SonyEricsson got the award for mobile device. The full list of winners for 2008 can be viewed here.

Best Mobile Handset or Device
SonyEricsson: W910 Walkman Phone
3UK: 3 Skypephone - Highly Commended

Best Use of Mobile for Social & Economic Development

Grameenphone: CellBazaar

Best Mobile Game

Cellufun: Call of the Pharaoh
Glu Mobile: My Hangman

Best Broadcast Commercial
Safaricom: M-PESA ‘Send Money Home’ campaign

Best Mobile Advertising
Crossmedia Avenue: AMF Pension – the MMS campaign

Best Use of Mobile for Social & Economic Development
Grameenphone: CellBazaar

Best Network Quality Initiative
RAD Data Communications: LA-130 Cell Gateway - Cost-Effective HSPA Backhaul

Best Service Delivery Platform
Aepona: Aepona Telecom Web Services Platform

Best Billing and Customer Solution
Bharti Airtel: mChek on Airtel – Mobile Payments Service

Best Mobile Music Service
Omnifone: MusicStation

Best Mobile Video Service
mywaves

Best Mobile Social Networking Service
BuzzCity: myGamma.com

Best Mobile Infotainment Portal for News/entertainment
Yahoo! Connected Life: Yahoo! Go for Mobile 2.0

Best Mobile Enterprise Product or Service
Microsoft: Windows Mobile 6

Best Mobile Messaging Service
Seven: System Seven 7.0

The GSMA Chairman’s Award
Sunil Bharti Mittal, Founder, Chairman & Group CEO Bharti Enterprise

Lucky us. Finally the mobile applications are getting the attention they deserve and no matter who loses among the giants, the end users will be the winner. Google, Apple, Yahoo and Microsoft have invaded the mobile phone and application area. Apple of course was first to the market with their market disruptive iPhone. Google has created buzz with their android software stack and the $10 million (see details here) award announcements.  See Brough Turner’s blog post about how Google bypassed Java’s licensing by using Dalvik VM.

What about Yahoo and Microsoft? They are playing catch-up.

The reaction from Microsoft was interesting. Microsoft played down the initial announcements and said that the perception that mobile applications are not available or cannot be developed are incorrect. Well, this is the classic windows mobile vs. linux war and I promise it will get very interesting and intense.

Yahoo is busy signing agreements to provide mobile Internet-search service to nine Asian mobile operators, as the company races to bring email, mapping and photo-sharing services to cellphones. With this move Yahoo’s mobile Internet services could potentially cover about 40% of Asia’s mobile phone subscribers, he said. Yahoo expects the global mobile Internet search market to grow to between $4 billion and $16 billion by 2011. More about this deal. Read more »

Brough Turner has written many interesting pieces covering the Connect 2007 conference in Boston. Here is an excerpt from his entry on mobile web based on the panel discussion in the conference. I agree that the ‘middle of the road’ approach makes sense but its not yet clear what are the parameters which will make it click.

Andrew Budd of mBlox is very articulate on the need for wholesale models, i.e. not the “real” Internet, but a mobile world where operators allow (facilitate) customer access to 3rd party content. This is the compromise position between the typical walled garden operator and the completely open Internet (which Dean Bubley pressed in a question from the floor).  Andrew’s argument against the wide open mobile Internet is roughly that we don’t want the 900 number meltdown that we saw in the US in the 1990s (when premium rate services became associated with scams and porn).

Likewise, Jud Bowman of Motricity, clearly expects the “real” Internet to win eventually, but in a long transition in which operator run programs dominate.  Jud made an interesting point I need to double check:  PC’s are only upgraded every 4-6 years (can it be that bad?) whereas mobiles are upgraded every 2 years (in the US).  The implication is we’ll see very rapid change in the mobile market in the next 2-4 years as handset vendors learn from the UI of the iPhone and 3G data capacity continues to evolve.

Michael Scully, Director of Music, Mobile Content and Data, at Virgin Mobile USA was the one operator representative on the panel and, as might be expected, (and completely legitimately), pressed the point that Virgin Mobile has a relationship with their customers that centers around a very personal device - their mobile phone.

Another set of numbers (from Andrew Budd) that I need to check out:  The mobile industry is worth $700B whereas the Internet is only worth $150B.  That was partly contested by Seamus McAteer of M:Metrics but I didn’t hear an alternate set of numbers.

Here’s an Urdu related entry - Urdu SIM service from Warid. It so happens that the previous story about Urduwas also related to Warid. The whimsical mix of English and Urdu terms in this FAQ (Amoomi Sawalat) follows the same pattern as discussed earlier and my previous criticism is equally valid here. The Urdu menu service seems to be useful I would think that Urdu sms will be supported as well. Overall it is a good first step towards localization.

PTA issued this warning in local newspapers (source: TGP). I see two good things here: First, the action to move agains the unwanted text messages and a number where people can call to register their concerns. Second, the ad copy is mostly written in urdu terms, avoiding unnecessary English terms about which we complained earlier. But note how Telenor becomes “Telenar” as written here.

Good start but this will require more work by PTA to clarify the “code of conduct” for sending sms. I hope that soon we will see some more information on PTA site about this initiative.

Nokia has made a welcome move to further tap into the Islamic VAS market, as reported here and at many other blogs. The N73 phone from Nokia was introduced in Middle East this week. It is packed with Islamic content and applications. This special edition should become popular in South Asia too, as it supports Urdu and has many desired features.

The new Nokia N73 Special Edition includes a unique portfolio of pre-loaded applications including a collection of Azkars for the morning and the evening, an Islamic Organizer with audible alarms for the five daily prayers, a Qibla direction indicator and a Hijri calendar. The Hajj and Umrah application provides simple step-by-step descriptions for the Hajj and Umrah, while the Ramadaniat application explains all the instructions and rules for the Holy month of Ramadan. Also included with these on the 2GB miniSD card are two Islamic e-books and a Universal Dictionary application which supports English, Arabic, Farsi, Urdu and French.

‘In addition the Nokia N73 Special Edition offers unique Ramadan Greetings, a very special customized e-card application that enables families and friends to send greeting cards through SMS or MMS in celebration of this Holy month’ said Neil Gordon, Vice President for Multimedia, Nokia, Middle East & Africa, ‘This new edition is a reflection of Nokia’s commitment to continuously provide consumers with tailored services, based on their needs and requirements.’

In addition to the pre-loaded content consumers using the Nokia N73 Special Edition can also download other additional applications. Downloadable content includes the Name of Allah application, exclusively available for Nokia users as well as a third e-book.

N73 is available in 3G, quadband EDGE/GSM networks.

If you or someone you know has used this phone, please share your feedback with other readers of this blog.

From New Scientist Special Report. The idea is summed nicely by this statement from the report: In the developing regions you have hostile conditions for a PC so phones have a lot of potential to become the computing platform for people.

Two proof-of-concept cases studies from India illustrate how. The first one is about converting banking paper forms to digital version using mobile phone. The second one is about educational video games that run on smartphones.

Is there a similar case study which you can share?

Micro-lending groups are typically run by women in rural areas who arrange small loans for each other or act as mediators between banks and the local community. They have proved to be a successful strategy in sparking business endeavours and combating poverty. But one problem is that these groups often keep poor accounts, which can make it difficult for banks or other lenders to invest in them with confidence.

“When banks are interested in lending to these people, if they’re lucky the groups will have a stack of paper records,” says Tapan Parikh, a computer scientist at the University of Washington in Seattle who works with micro-finance groups in India.

Typically, these records would include forms stating the agreed amount, duration of the loan and repayment receipts. Parikh learned that group members prefer the paper forms because many can’t read and so fill them out by memorising which numbers go in which boxes. As a result, he stuck with paper but turned to camera-phones to make the accounting process more secure and transparent.

He created a new version of the paper forms, which look like the old ones except that a barcode has been added next to each box or section where you need to fill in numbers. Instead of filling out these new forms, you take a picture of each barcode with a cellphone. Software on the phone recognises the barcode and a message appears on the screen, prompting you to enter the figures that would have gone in the section that corresponds to that barcode. There is also a spoken version of the message to make things clearer for those who can’t read. In this way, the borrower or lender scrolls through the whole form, taking snapshots of the barcodes and entering data via the phone’s keypad. The result is an electronic version of the form, which is initially stored on the phone and later uploaded to a central server when the phone is near a mast.

Learn English by phone

It isn’t just the photo and video features of smartphones that are useful to people in the developing world. The advanced graphics and high-speed chips they come with are being harnessed to build educational video games.John Canny’s group at the University of California, Berkeley, found that the language skills of some English teachers in Mysore, India, were lacking and that children were often kept away from school to help with chores. Yet 19 of 47 students had parents with cellphones.

Read more »

Wireless week has a special report out on mobile advertising- its challenges and rewards. As with any new technology, business is trying to make sense of what will work. The report points out that “advertisers are familiar with working with print, TV, radio and the Internet as separate entities. But mobile networks can bring together the Internet, video, text, gaming, music and more.”  An important point as emphasized in the report is: Advertisers want to buy audiences and not technology.

I am including an excerpt about the sms based advertising in the US. I consider this approach relevant to Pakistan’s market.

Text-based campaigns and WAP sites have become the two main avenues for brands to reach mobile subscribers.

One of the companies involved in text-based advertising is qtags, a Houston-based mobile marketing company that uses short codes to provide mobile interactive content, including promotions and coupons. Its clients include Accenture, NAS Recruitment, Fidelity Investments, Toyota, Verizon Wireless, American Express, CITI and Hewlett Packard.

“Our goal,” says founder Allison Gower, “is to help the consumer control their advertising.” Qtags connects consumers and brands off-line and online, Gower says, by making content interactive via SMS. An example is texting a keyword like “Verizon” to qtags’ shortcode, 78247, and the user gets information about jobs available at Verizon Wireless. The texts are saved online. Many of the current campaigns are job recruitment related.

The service can help brand names build communities of consumers who have an interest in their products, Gower says. The overall service is free of advertising although community sites might have sponsored sites.

Mobile provides context of time and place, she says. When someone enters a store and sees a promotion, a consumer can text to get specials listed on their phone.

Read more »

Google, Yahoo and others are in a fierce fight to grow and capture the mobile phone advertisement market .  Yahoo came up with new search and web 2.0 features earlier this year in support of its mobile ads. Localized versions are available as well such as Yahoo India. Google has made its popular applications available on the mobiles as well but is still not as dominant in this space as they are on the Internet. The most recent trend is to pre-load the apps on mobile phones to make it easy for end users and encourage higher usage. The hard part? Google has to work with phone companies - example of this was the deal with SK Telecom. However dealing with each service provider is a slow and tedious approach. Wall Street Journal reports about this struggle.

Google, which has made billions of dollars in Web advertising on computers, is courting wireless operators to carry handsets customized to Google products, including its search engine, email and a new mobile Web browser, say people familiar with the plans. It wants to capture a big chunk of the fast-growing market for ads on cellphones

Google has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in the cellphone project, say people who have been briefed on it. It has developed prototype handsets, made overtures to operators such as T-Mobile USA and Verizon Wireless, and talked over technical specifications with phone manufacturers. It hopes multiple manufacturers will make devices based on its specs and multiple carriers will offer them.

For wireless operators, the plans are a double-edged sword. Google’s powerful brand and its popular Web services could help operators sign up more subscribers to data packages, on which they increasingly rely as voice revenue declines. However, operators have been wary about losing control over the mobile-ad market.

Read more »