State of Telecom Industry in Pakistan

MobileActive.Org, a grass root organization which focusses on the role of mobile technology for social change and awareness, has released a new report, Wireless Technology for Social Change: Trends in NGO Mobile Use. A key point which struck me was the importance of affordability. Survey shows that Financial discounts by telecom companies and vendors is the most significant factor … I see this as a great opportunity to make a huge difference to these organizations and to create goodwill!

Here’s a brief intro.

Mobile technology is transforming the way advocacy, development and relief organizations accomplish their institutional missions. The report Wireless Technology for Social Change: Trends in NGO Mobile Use, released by the United Nations Foundation and The Vodafone Group Foundation, brings this point home.

Wireless Technology for Social Change: Trends in NGO Mobile Use was written by Sheila Kinkade (ShareIdea.org) and Katrin Verclas, and commissioned by the United NationsFoundation-Vodafone Group Foundation Technology Partnership. The report examines emerging trends in “mobile activism” by looking at 11 case studies of groups active in the areas of public health, humanitarian assistance and environmental conservation.

Here’s the new world order in handsets for Q1 2008, based on an undisclosed research report.

Motorola drops to number three in volume terms and number five in value terms.

LG was the winner for the quarter with a YoY volume growth rate of 54% followed by Samsung with 33% growth. The market grew 14%. Motorola wasn’t the only loser. Sony Ericsson lost market share. And so did Apple. RIM and HTC are gaining smartphone share.

The handset market grew at YoY rate of 14% and again grew slightly less concentrated, with the top-five vendors taking 83.5% of global volume. This compares to 84.5% during the same period a year ago and 83.6% during Q4 2007. This is a reflection of both Motorola’s share loss and specialty vendors such as RIM, HTC and Apple taking higher-end share and smaller vendors taking some at the low-end (for example, the success of operator-branded handsets in Europe and some emerging markets).

The Korean vendors have been hedging their bets, using every form factor and platform known to man while working hand-in-hand with operators in key markets. In addition, Samsung and LG have been helped by the South Korean won’s weakness, which is at a two-year low against the U.S. dollar and even lower against the Euro.

Nokia’s market share for Q1, at around 41% according to Strategy Analytics, is up almost four points year-on-year and steady from the previous quarter. The combined share of Samsung, Motorola, LG, and Sony Ericsson was around 42.6%, meaning Nokia is close to matching the combined volumes of the two, three, four, and five vendors.

A good write-up from PTA on mobile number migration work, currently in progress. See my previous posts here and here.

Pakistan follows International Telecommunication Union (ITU) -T standards E.164 for geographical national numbering plan that includes local loop & cellular mobile operators. The cellular mobile numbers are identified by means of 4-digit separate access code which is known as NDC (National Destination code) i.e. 03xx (x=0-9). The first 50 codes are reserved for Cellular mobile operators. Each access code has the capacity to accommodate 8-million subscribers excluding level “0” & “1”. This means that subscriber number consist of 11-digits i.e. NDC & 7-digit number starting from 2 to 9. In Pakistan cellular mobile numbering plan is based on geographical boundaries that limit the utilization to 50-60% of the numbering space available against each NDC. In this scenario, each cellular mobile operator requires multiple NDCs to accommodate their growing subscribers.

To provide more numbering space, a public consultation process for 7 to 8 mobile number migration was started in 2007. The consultation paper was circulated to all stakeholders and it was decided that the current mobile numbering plan i.e. 0300-xxxxxxx will be changed into new mobile numbering plan i.e. 030-0xxxxxxx. The mobile number migration is planned to alter minimum changes in the existing mobile subscriber numbers, as there is shift of 1-digit from mobile NDC code to the subscriber number. Except CMPAK [031], Instaphone [036], & SCOM [035] the numbering plan of remaining cellular mobile operators will remain the same from subscriber point of view. The dialing format of Mobilink, Ufone, Telenor, & Warid will remain the same but the changes are implemented in core network. This will increase the current numbering capacity by 10 times which is enough for next two decades in Pakistan.

Read more »

Here is a very interesting post about mobile video from Brough Turner, whose blog I close follow. Brough makes a very good point that mobile video on demand is what makes sense for most cases - not live TV. It also provides one more reason why mobile TV offering from Telenor did not take off (in addition to the fact that it was pricey).

I have an article, Going Mobile TV(pdf), that’s recently been published by MobileIN, a wireless and mobile information site. In it I basically argue that major investments in mobile TV broadcast capability are less likely to pay off than investments mobile video-on-demand.

The biggest trend in commercial television viewing is personal video recorders like TiVo. People want to watch TV content when they want, not when broadcasters schedule it. The only exception is major sports events (the Superbowl or World Cup matches). Even the evening news is frequently rescheduled for later in the evening.

The second relevant trend is growth in YouTube and similar web-based video content. Broadcast TV went from 2-3 channels in the 1950s to hundreds of channels on a typical cable system today. But consumers are also interested in the long tail of millions of videos that can only be served over the Internet today and, potentially, over the mobile Internet in the future.

Finally, survey’s of early adopters of mobile video show music videos, movie trailers, weather, sports action clips, comedy videos, cartoons and amateur video shorts – typically a few minutes long at most – are the most popular content. In addition, it appears 85 percent of mobile video viewers watched viral videos (content sent or pointed out by others) rather than content they found themselves.

All and all, mobile consumers are looking for video -on-demand, not pre-scheduled broadcast TV.

So what’s the logic for massive investments in spectrum, followed by even more money in new wireless infrastructure, followed by the need to sell everyone new handsets that can receive the new broadcast mobile TV channels?

Photo by Waheed Zuberi. I spotted this on Pakistaniat where Owais Mughal took to poetry to capture the essence of the moment. Whether you find this amusing or a blatant misbuse of cell phone, this is how life moves on in places where cell phones go from almost zero to near 80 milion in few years. 

Does it make business sense to introduce 3G in Pakistan at this time? PTA has been deliberating on this question for a while. Recently PTA asked major technology stakeholders (equipment makers, mobile companies) to share their view points on 3G licensing and roll-out. The presentations have been posted at the PTA website. Telenor CEO has talked to press about his views on 3G, covered here. Take a look at few points from a presentation by another one of the major mobile company. The argument presented is that conditions are not suitable for 3G in Pakistan and the data revenue potential does not justify investments needed for 3G. They recommend to either defer spectrum allotment or give partial spectrum at nominal cost. Can you guess which mobile operator is this?

3G Situation in Pakistan

• Pakistan is a low priced voice dominated market. Industry is building voice capacity rather than enhanced capability
• Pakistan Mobile Data Subscriptions Disappointing
• Nominal GPRS subscriptions in the industry
• ARPU uplift from these subscriptions is negligible
• Multi-mode (GSM/UMTS) handsets are still costly
• GSM market exploded due to economies of scale in the hand sets
• GSM hand set is available as low as $25
• Small percentage of 3G capable hand sets in the market
• 3G non-voice mobile revenues are expected to be negligible
• Localized content stimulates usage — Low literacy in Pakistan
• No content available in local/regional languages

Spectrum Cost

• Spectrum forms part of investment for an operator to roll out a 3G network
• Five operators can be expected to invest over a billion dollars on initial launch
• More cell sites would required to support higher data rates
• Local content development is an uphill task

Option 1
Defer the allotment of spectrum for another 1-2 years (as per our recommendation May 2007)

Option 2
Award 5Mhz of 3G spectrum to all MNOs at nominal cost (similar to WiMax spectrum fee )

Why?

1. Incentive to build and grow 3G services
2. Justify high capex on roll outs
3. Technology proliferation
4. Affordable 3G services for masses
5. Allocation of additional 3G spectrum at a subsequent date
6. Operators keen to expand on 3G portfolio can bid
7. Market foundation is laid
8. Business case for further investments
9. Strengthen operator capability to offer better QoS and advanced services

Hear what Big Blue has to say about the future of mobile phones. This discussion of a IBM mobile learning executive and a Motorola director touches upon some interesting directions such as text to speech and location based technologies. Technology companies realize that this is the time to define their territory and are eager to share their visionary thinking. One of the point worth mentioning from this conversation: phones have to fit well with people’s lives and not the other way around.

Over the coming years, mobile phones are expected to get “smarter”, adjusting to our usage patterns. Innovations such as larger projectable screens and other e-commerce and social networking features will enable the phone to provide much more value to our lives.

Future Of theMobile Phone - IBM

CTIA Wireless 2008 is one of the largest wireless events in the US. Among its various programs is the Emerging Technology Awards which claims to highlight the most innovative products and applications representing all facets of the mobile lifestyle in wireless”. It is a good place to see some promising gadgets, applications and products.

Take a look at this report. Do you think these were truly worthy of awards?

Mobile CE - Phone/Smartphone
1st place - Instinct by Samsung, exclusively from Sprint
2nd place - Nokia N96
3rd place - Samsung ACE (SPH-i325)

Consumer Applications - Messaging (SMS/MMS)/Mobile Marketing
1st place - Cellfire 3.0
2nd place - Reply with Jott for BlackBerry
3rd place - SnapNow Mobile Visual Search

Consumer Applications - Mobile Entertainment/Social Networking
1st place - Ontela’s PicDeck™
2nd place - WidSets
3rd place - Yahoo! Go 3.0

Mobile Widgets - Consumer
1st place - Zumobi
2nd place - Fusion Voicemail Plus by PhoneFusion
3rd place - JACKED Mobile SportsTop

Taiwan-based High Tech Computer Corp. commonly known as HTC, has been doing some amazing things but without much fanfare. Now its getting well-deserved attention from the media and investors. Analysts are projecting HTC to be a major player in Asian handset markets. One of its star products is The Touch, which, like the iPhone, uses a touch-sensitive screen rather than dedicated buttons for many of its functions. Touch was a big profit-driver for the company last quarter. This week at CTIA, HTC Touch Dual was introduced with Windows Mobile 6.1. Later this year HTC is expected to launch Dream, an ultrathin version of Touch.

Thats not all though. HTC will be making android based phones as well. A recent WSJ article says that the buzz for Google phone may make HTC a smart stock for investors seeking growth in uncertain economic times.

HTC started in 2002 making Windows-based smart phones under contract for companies such as Palm Inc., Dell Inc, and Hewlett-Packard Co. Now, nearly 80% of its sales comes from handsets it makes in collaboration with telecom operators across the globe and under its own brand.

This month, HTC announced an alliance with Reliance Communications Ltd., India’s second-largest phone company by subscribers, to promote smart phones in that country. HTC’s CDMA handsets will be used on Reliance’s network, a move that will strengthen HTC’s foothold in one of the world’s fastest-growing phone markets.

Read more »

Here’s a peek at some of the interesting upcoming mobile phone technologies. These include next generation voice-recognition which allows you real hands-free control of phone, 3D maps, sending streaming video to cell phones, games (mobile second life), digital storage of documents for mobiles, surveillance, social applications which allow you to locate buddies using GPS and location-aware apps which provide personalized suggestions about attractions like restaurants as you’re walking around the neighborhood.

This post coincides with one of the biggest wireless event: CTIA, which opens today. Many of new mobile and wireless technologies are announced there. I’ll cover that soon.

Video courtesy of Wall Street Journal. Let me know if you are interested in the full article.

It is inevitable that more and more kids (say ages 8-16) will own a mobile phone. The very qualities which make a mobile phone very useful (personal, connected and media capable) can also make it a cause for concern for parents. How can parents know if their kids are using the phones appropriately? Previously we have talked about some issues but there’s a lot more to discuss about the generation gap, content which ends up on the phone (whether it is live content or from removable media) and the vulnerabilities to which kids can be exposed to.

Results of a recent AT&T survey revealed that 84 percent of consumers believe parental controls and safety tools are extremely or very important in keeping children safe while they use today’s entertainment and communications technologies. Nearly one-third (31 percent) of those adults do not feel that they have adequate knowledge of how to use those tools to protect children from today’s threats.

There was a recent article in New York Times about the generation gap caused by mobile phones in US. It quotes a social psychologist Sherry Turkle (a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who has studied the social impact of mobile communications) saying that these trends are likely to continue as cellphones morph into mini hand-held computers, social networking devices and pint-size movie screens. The point made by the story is that parents need to learn about how kids are using new technology. Obviously the situation varies from culture to culture but the trend is the same.

There have been attempts by a few companies to design services which allow parents control over how their kids use mobile phones and services. But there’s only so much that a parent can control and the personal nature of mobile phone makes it very difficult to monitor its usage. As many would argue, it is a social matter which should not be tried to solve using technology. However there is still a case to be made for putting controls over how the phone is used if you are the one paying the bill.

The NYT article adds: Marketers and cellphone makers are only too happy to fill the newest generation gap. Last fall, Firefly Mobile introduced the glowPhone for the preschool set; it has a small keypad with two speed-dial buttons depicting an image of a mother and a father.

Towards this AT&T has Smart Limits which allows parents to set account thresholds and to filter out content. See a flash demo here and keep in mind that it is not a complete solution by any means. Hit the link below to see details about this from AT&T website:

Read more »

Osama Hashmi at Green & White on the relationship of startups and Telcos. Telcos are always looking for interesting value-added services to drive up their ARPU and will partner with anyone who can offer such mobile apps. Of course telcos are also known for their control obsession over content & partners.

This is part of a conversation that started in a Startup Insiders session - should a young fledgling firm with a good idea think about building products around the mobile telecom space?

If you have a nice brilliant consumer-focused idea today, you’ll also have a number of options available to implement it. You could realize your idea as a web-2.0 implementation, as a widget, as a facebook / open-social application, as a web-M solution (mobile-focus website), as a handset-only application, or as a specialized value-added service built and offered in close partnership with a telecom operator.

The question is - where and why would you want to work with a telco, when some of the other options (particularly facebook) can offer a much higher potential audience-base and much lower total development costs.

Adnan from PixSense had the best answer I’ve heard about this - and as a backdrop I’ll point to a recent interview by the Mobile Marketing Magazine of the CEO of PixSense, Paul Singh.

The answer, according to Adnan, lies not in what telecos in general are doing with service vendors, but in what they could do in terms of pricing of the service.

Read more »