MobileActive.Org, a grass root organization which focusses on the role of mobile technology for social change and awareness, has released a new report, Wireless Technology for Social Change: Trends in NGO Mobile Use. A key point which struck me was the importance of affordability. Survey shows that Financial discounts by telecom companies and vendors is the most significant factor … I see this as a great opportunity to make a huge difference to these organizations and to create goodwill!
Here’s a brief intro.
Mobile technology is transforming the way advocacy, development and relief organizations accomplish their institutional missions. The report Wireless Technology for Social Change: Trends in NGO Mobile Use, released by the United Nations Foundation and The Vodafone Group Foundation, brings this point home.
Wireless Technology for Social Change: Trends in NGO Mobile Use was written by Sheila Kinkade (ShareIdea.org) and Katrin Verclas, and commissioned by the United NationsFoundation-Vodafone Group Foundation Technology Partnership. The report examines emerging trends in “mobile activism” by looking at 11 case studies of groups active in the areas of public health, humanitarian assistance and environmental conservation.
Reality Mining is a process which mines various machine-sensed data which could be used predict human behavior. In case of cell phones, it has been used to provide a uniquely rich record of people’s locations, actions, social behavior, and even social roles. The research at MIT is sponsored by Nokia.
This is one of those stories which may seem to be ’so far out there’ but it has caused many to raise concerns. See the views from Nicholas Carr’s RoughType blog on reality mining. Do you know for sure that your call data is secure? My concern is that for a variety of reasons, data from emerging telecom markets is susceptible to abuse and reality mining presents one of ways to make use of this data. The privacy laws in Pakistan and other developing countries are so weak (if there are any) that its only a matter of time before a problem is reported.
Nathan Eagle, a research scientist at the MIT Design Laboratory, is currently working with a database that holds an entire month’s worth calling data for a whole European country, though he won’t say which one. Scrubbed of all information that might be used to identify people, the data set contains information on 250 million phones and some 12 billion phone calls.
Wireless companies could use the information to help keep customers from switching to a rival—a strategic must in a region where most of the population already has a cell phone and “new” customers are scarce. Eagle mines the data for a range of information, such as identifying so-called influencers, who use their phone the most. Not only are these subscribers valuable because they use their phone a lot, but they’re also more likely to influence other people’s service and product purchases—and to take customers with them when they switch. “If someone who makes a lot of calls walks away, there’s a higher potential that they’ll take more people along with them,” Eagle says.
Hear what Big Blue has to say about the future of mobile phones. This discussion of a IBM mobile learning executive and a Motorola director touches upon some interesting directions such as text to speech and location based technologies. Technology companies realize that this is the time to define their territory and are eager to share their visionary thinking. One of the point worth mentioning from this conversation: phones have to fit well with people’s lives and not the other way around.
Over the coming years, mobile phones are expected to get “smarter”, adjusting to our usage patterns. Innovations such as larger projectable screens and other e-commerce and social networking features will enable the phone to provide much more value to our lives.
According to LIRNEasia’s latest comparative study of price and affordability indicators in eight South Asian countries, Pakistan is near the top in terms of affordability. For Pakistan the study used Jazz Budget (Prepaid) and Indigo Freedom Plan 1(Postpaid). See an example comparison chart.
Overall the study concluded that “Bangladesh had the lowest average monthly cost of using a mobile at all levels of use (low, medium and high) for different tariff plans (prepaid and postpaid). Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka follow closely, while Bhutan, Maldives and Afghanistan are seen to have significantly higher average monthly mobile costs.”
Here’s some background on how the study was done - should be interesting for business & economics students:
The study compares mobile tariffs in South Asia using price baskets, derived from those used by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The baskets are calculated for low, medium and high users for pre- as well as postpaid tariff plans, factoring in usage charges (voice and SMS), line rental, connection charges (depreciated over a three year period), and applicable taxes.
A few months ago I wrote about DRITTE and the interesting research work by Umar Saif and team at LUMS. One of their projects is Peer-to-Peer Dialup Networking which aims to mitigate the digital divide by creating efficiencies from dialup Internet. Also called poor man’s broadband, the concept is as illustrated below.
This work, funded by Microsoft Research’s Digital Inclusion Grant, was featured in New Scientist. Note that lack of cheap ‘local bandwidth’ in Pakistan is something which has been discussed actively on blogs and forums (here and here).
Here is the abstract of the paper:
In this paper we present a peer-to-peer dialup architecture for accelerated “Internet access” in the developing world. Our proposed architecture provides a mechanism for multiplexing the scarce and expensive international Internet bandwidth over higher bandwidth p2p dialup connections within a developing country. Our system combines a number of architectural components, such as incentive-driven p2p data transfer, intelligent connection interleaving and content-prefetching. This paper presents a detailed design, implementation and evaluation of our dialup p2p data transfer architecture inspired by Bittorrent.
For more information see this review at SIGCOMM site. You can also download the paper from there. The authors include Umar Saif, Ahsan Latif Chudhary, Shakeel Butt, and Nabeel Farooq Butt. Great job, congratulations to the team!
I will write more about their other interesting projects soon. Here’s an excerpt from New Scientist (subscription needed) article:
IT’S not often that you get to go faster by avoiding the superhighway, but soon students in Pakistan will be able to download big files faster by avoiding the internet.
Instead of using expensive broadband or slow, unreliable dial-up connections, students at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) will try out a new system, dubbed “poor man’s broadband” (PMB). It allows computers to link to each other directly for faster downloads, and it works as long as at least one computer running the trial software has already downloaded the desired file from the internet. The system should also reduce the university’s risk of overloading the bandwidth supplied by its internet service providers (ISPs).
Of the many challenges that our nation faces, educating and training of our youth is one of the most important. We need to prepare the next generation of information and communication technology professionals who are skilled, knowledgeable and competitive. We need to cultivate leadership from the next generation who can solve problems through research and innovation.
Currently we face a shortage of skilled engineers and researchers. Even if you combine the graduates of all tiers of universities and colleges, the numbers are far below the need. But there’s an even bigger challenge - are we producing the right quality of resources? The answer is a definite NO.
There is work to be done in many areas. Funding the right programs, education policy, quality of existing education, training fresh graduates to transition to a professional life etc. I get plenty of mails and comments from students looking for internship or ideas for projects. It is evident from these interactions that many do not have the training to do fundamental research. They also lack the necessary communication skills which are critical to meet the global workforce standards. The lack of information about what opportunities are available to them further hinders their prospects.
On a positive note there are groups and agencies which are working to make a difference. I recently heard about a promising effort: The National ICT R&D Fund. Here are some excerpts from an email from the General Manager Solicitation and Evaluation, of this Fund.
National ICT R&D Fundwas created in January 2007 by Ministry of IT with the vision to transform Pakistan’s economy into a knowledge based economy by promoting efficient, sustainable and effective ICT (IT and Telecommunications) initiatives through synergy of industrial and academic resources. We have significant funds available for proposals that are geared towards creating ICT related technologies. We have a very positive and nurturing attitude and would like to fund projects that enhance the state of the art and create opportunities by solving industrial problems.
It is widely accepted that mobile phones have made a tremenedous impact on Pakistan’s economy but there have been few if any formal studies about this. Earlier this year GSM Association asked Deloitte Consultants in UK to undertake a study (covered in this post) about the economic and social benefits of mobile telecom services in Pakistan. The main thrust of the study was to find the impact of elimination of taxes on mobile subscription growth. Recently GSMA shared the full report with me. This impressive report has interesting analysis, statistics and charts based on first-hand research, interviews and data from mobile companies and other market intelligence sources. I will share the key findings in a series of posts. To start with, let me highlight some of the interesting points about the Mobile telecom sector of Pakistan:
In 2006 the sector contributed a total of PKR312 billion to the economy, over 5% of GDP
Mobile sector employed 210,000 Pakistanis in 2006
Gain in productivity. PKR94 billion of value add to domestic economy in 2006
Consumer surplus increased by PRKR42 billion between 2003-06
Pakistan has one of the highest tax burdens on mobile services in Asia Pacific.
Upcoming posts in this series will include:
Mobile Value Chain in Pakistan, Supply and Demand side impact of Telecom on Pakistan’s Economy, Taxation of Mobile sector, How activation and sales tax impacts mobile growth and Tangible and Intangible Benefits of Mobile Telecom.
Continuing the coverage of 3G and WiMAX, here’s a research paper by a grad student at Colorado University, which provides the point of view that 3G technologies have an edge over WiMAX. I wanted to share it to see what you think. For those who are interested in a detailed comparison, it is a good reference. Note that the context of the paper is North American market so the conclusions do not necessarily make sense for other markets such as Pakistan.
There has been much conversation over the past few years regarding the evolution of next-generation air interfaces supporting mobile broadband. One of the most talked about as far as promise is concerned is 802.16e, otherwise known as mobile WiMAX. In its advertised form, the standard can support data rates of tens of megabits per second while supporting many real-time user applications that cannot be supported by third-generation technologies. Although mobile WiMAX sounds promising as a next-generation technology, other factors do exist which will limit its overall success. Some of the factors that will be discussed in this paper will include the design challenges facing base-station architecture, competing third-generation long-term evolution (LTE) technologies, and costs to existing service providers to upgrade their networks. This paper is meant to demonstrate that from a service-provider’s point-of-view, the upgrade path to mobile WiMAX may not be the correct solution.
Here’s an application demo on a topic about which you will hear a lot in the coming days: Group and Integrated Messaging. Found out about SwarmTeams at InBabble where there’s an interview with the founder. This looks promising and is something which I could really use. What is your take?
A bit of background which may be interesting to you: Swarmteams has been developed in response to research into biological teams and groups (aka “bioteams”) such as micro-organisms, ants, bees and dolphins. The principles include:
Stop Controlling - Communicate information not orders
Team Intelligence - Mobilise everyone to look for group threats and opportunities
Permission Granted - Achieve accountability through transparency not permission
Always-On - Provide 24×7 instant “in-situ” message hotlines for all team members
Symbiosis - Treat external partners as fully trusted team members
Cluster - Nurture the team’s internal and external networks and connections
With more and more drivers using phones while driving, the situation on the roads is becoming alarming. There are teenagers who are trying to read or send text messages while driving and then there are adults who are so addicted to their blackberries that they have to use it behind the wheel.
I came across an interesting paper about the use of hands-free devices with mobile phones while driving. The study and conclusions make sense: Mobile phones contribute to traffic fatalities and hands-free laws appear to reduce fatalities. The paper is based on data from the US but the study should be valid anywhere in the world. I am sharing the abstract below, the full paper can be accessed here.
Most rich countries in the world and four US states require drivers talking on mobile phones to use hands-free devices. However, previous research has failed to arrive at a consensus on the effect of mobile phones on traffic accidents yet has concluded that the effect of hands-free and hand-held phones on accidents is similar.
Here’s one more company claiming to fix the yet unsolved problem of speech recognition on mobile phones. I’d like to see their speech-to-text solution in action or hear from someone who has tried it out. Read the complete article about Vlingo’s voice-recognition interface at Tech Review site. The key differentiators are a) that it uses Hierarchical Language Models and Adaptation techniques and b) you can train this software easily by fixing the text it gives you. And by the way, this article is available in audio as well (registration required). Here are some excerpts:
Vlingo, a startup in Cambridge, MA, is coming to market with a simple user interface that provides speech recognition across mobile-phone applications. “We are not developing the core speech-recognition engine,” says cofounder Michael Phillips, a former MIT research scientist and founder of SpeechWorks, which developed call-center speech interfaces. “We don’t need to do that again.” Instead, Vlingo takes speech, turns it into text, and provides a simple way to correct errors using the phone’s navigation keys, helping the system “learn.” The user’s spoken words travel over a mobile Internet connection for analysis on Vlingo’s server, sparing the phone the heavy computational work; the transcription appears less than two seconds later.
“Small platforms need speech, and search is a powerful way to find information,” says James Glass, head of the spoken-language systems group at MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory. “The combination of the two is very powerful,” he says, adding that Vlingo is working at that frontier.
Mazin Gilbert, executive director of natural-language processing at AT&T Labs in Florham Park, NJ, says others, including AT&T, are also developing speech interfaces for mobile phones; he thinks one problem will be “providing the right user experience in a cost-effective, scalable way.”
The recent boom in Pakistan’s technology sector has brought in a number of changes in the way businesses conduct their operations. However one thing which I have observed is that till recently Pakistan had lacked good quality market research. Yes, there were some research companies like AC Nielsen but their skills, reach and approach were rather limited. When it came to telecom and technology research, there was almost no local firm with this special skill set. Things are about to change. To fill this gap, Arif Hussain, a former Lucent executive, has launched SourceOne, a US company with an office in Karachi.
SourceOne aims to deliver, for the first time in Pakistan , unbiased market based intelligence, insight and a strategic perspective for the communications industry. The Communications Practice of SourceOne offers a portfolio of market-focused services, each built around high-value, high-impact market analysis. There is a sample report, ARPU Strategies for Mobile Operators in Pakistan, available on the website. A flagship Newsletter “The Source” will also be available to subscribers.
According to my discussions with SourceOne leadership, their market intelligence services are different from others because their thoroughly researched market reports are built on data from primary and secondary sources. I think this is a key factor, as most analyst reports I have seen depend on assumptions which are removed from ground realities. One has to be embedded in the local environment in order to add real value.
Of course a highly sought after service is that of customized reports for specific client needs such as outsourcing and doing business in Pakistan. “We offer a high degree of customization in terms of reports that can be tailored to the individual needs of clients. Potential clients that can best benefit from our services are Service Providers (fixed – wired or wireless and mobile), Vendors and Investors. We underscore everything we do with a total commitment to quality, accuracy and attention to detail”, said Arif Hussain, CEO of SourceOne.
This is a welcome addition and I am certain that a large number of local and foreign companies and investors will benefit from the professional services of SourceOne.
MobileActive.Org, a grass root organization which focusses on the role of mobile technology for social change and awareness, has released a new report, Wireless Technology for Social Change: Trends in NGO Mobile Use. A key point which struck me was the importance of affordability. Survey shows that Financial discounts by telecom companies and vendors is the most significant factor … I see this as a great opportunity to make a huge difference to these organizations and to create goodwill!
With more and more drivers using phones while driving, the situation on the roads is becoming alarming. There are teenagers who are trying to read or send text messages while driving and then there are adults who are so addicted to their blackberries that they have to use it behind the wheel.
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